NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for personnel, opponents and evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. Each week this season, I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful … or the most misunderstood.

This column will follow the format of: one trend to monitor, one news story viewed through the lens of analytics and a couple of my favorite — or least favorite — projections.

As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there’s a stat/trend you’d like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up on Twitter @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.

Trend to watch: 3 offensive strategies paying off

We’re getting really close to the four-game mark, which typically gives us enough data to get to a comfortable place with sample sizes to create profiles of team identities for the season. Each season, an offense’s ability to deal with pressure is a major theme, predictor of success and important tracking metric. Winning teams cater to their personnel in order to create opportunities to exploit their opponents’ deficiencies. This season, there are three main strategies that seem to be working for offenses early on. Here’s what the data shows thus far, with an example of each:

Shifts and motions. Not all pre-snap disguises and looks that throw defenses off balance are created equal. However, over the past three seasons, teams earned a passer rating that’s about 14 percent higher when they use pre-snap shifts and motions compared with similar downs and distances results when they don’t use them. Some teams are so adept at using these tactics that they see an even more dramatic difference. This season, the Chiefs have used pre-snap shifts and motions on 81 pass plays (third-most in the league), per Next Gen Stats. Patrick Mahomes has been pressured on 27 percent of his total dropbacks, but just 23.5 percent of the time when using shifts and motions. The Chiefs have used motion at the second-highest rate in the league (72% overall, 70% on passing downs) and average 7.1 yards per play with motion compared to 5.8 without. On passing plays, they average 8.7 yards per play when they use motion and 6.3 yards per play without. While there might not be extremely dramatic disparities between the two sets of data, these edges can be the difference between a drive ending in a field goal or a touchdown.
Quick passes and rollouts where the QB throws on the move. Remember, the key here is to design plays and recognize situations where it’s advantageous to use these tactics, not just calling for them on every passing down. NGS shows that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been pressured on 23.7 percent of dropbacks (ninth-lowest rate among QBs with at least 20 pass attempts). Through Week 3, 52.3 percent of his pass attempts have been quick passes (less than 2.5 seconds) and 11.4 percent have been outside the tackle box. Overall, the average pressure rate for QBs this season is 28.3 percent, but they’ve been pressured just 10.2 percent of the time when they’ve used quick passes (8.7% in Rodgers’ case) and 46.6 percent of the time when throwing outside the tackle box (36.4% for Rodgers, eighth-lowest rate in the league). It’s also worth noting that QBs have been under pressure on 26 percent of attempts outside the tackle box when they have a time to throw of four seconds or less, but Rodgers has faced pressure on just 20 percent of such attempts.

Draws and screens. The Bills have run seven draw plays this season, per Pro Football Focus. That’s tied for the second-most draws in the league — only the Patriots have more with nine. On these seven rushing plays, Buffalo earned 37 yards (5.3 yards per carry). The timing of the draws can help set teams up for success, too. Looking back over eight seasons of data, first-half use of a draw play resulted in about a 22 percent greater touchdown rate on the drive it was used in. As for screens, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been pressured on 23.5 percent of dropbacks this season (eighth-lowest rate in the league). Philadelphia has run 21 screens this season (the most in the NFL), and he’s 19-of-20 for 165 yards (8.3 yards per attempt) and a TD on those plays.

Before we move on to the next item, I just want to reiterate that the point is for offenses to find which outlets are successful to mitigate pressure based on personnel and potential. None of these tactics work every time, and they don’t work equally for every team, but the teams that find their identity under pressure quickly create gains that help drive wins. It’s also worth noting that these tactics will need to adapt as defenses adapt, so think of the observed trends as a starting point for success.

Trevon Diggs: Analytics show signs of breakout

With offenses passing more than ever, defensive backs are shaping game outcomes more than ever. This week alone, the Bucs signed Richard Sherman and the Panthers traded for CJ Henderson to help combat cornerback injuries. With that in mind, I thought it was worth looking a bit deeper at an example of how the back end and front end of defenses are working together this season (aka my homage to Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, who’s tied for the league lead in interceptions with three entering Week 4).

Thus far, Dallas is generating its lowest pressure rate (25.4%) since the start of the 2017 season, but the team is producing its lowest passer rating allowed (59.2) over that span when it does create pressure. Diggs has increased his individual win share by 31 percent in 2021 and part of what has helped drive that is the quality of the pressure up front. Faster and more effective pressure (leading to more scrambles, pocket breakdowns and checkdowns) creates more opportunities for Diggs to exploit. The other factor driving his win-share jump is that Diggs is closer to passing targets when the ball arrives (tracking at about 1.3 yards closer on average) and his hips are facing targets more often in coverage. Typically, hip direction is correlated with reaching a target faster and an increase in the rate of stopping the pass. My research suggests he’s improved his game this season. Coordinator Dan Quinn’s scheme and the opportunities being afforded Diggs have given him the space (literally) to realize those gains.

PROJECTION SECTION

NOTE: The figures cited below are provided by Caesars, current as of 2 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 1.

One Week 4 projection I like: Baltimore defeating Denver.

In 54.4 percent of my simulations for Sunday’s Ravens-Broncos game in Denver, Baltimore wins. On a neutral site, the number would be 56.9 percent. There’s a lot to like about the Broncos’ defense, but one area that’s a potential advantage for the Ravens is their ability to make impact run plays. NGS shows that the Broncos have a 12.2 percent run stuff rate (fourth-lowest in the league).

One Week 4 projection I love: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts earning more than 52.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs.

The Eagles did not leverage Hurts’ rushing potential to its fullest in a Week 3 loss to the Cowboys. Looking at the box score (nine runs for 35 yards) doesn’t really tell the whole story, though. Philadelphia used designed runs on just 9.4 percent of plays last week, but the play-calling forecasts to be different against a Chiefs defense that allowed Lamar Jackson to rush for 107 yards in Week 2.

One Week 4 projection I don’t like: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins passing for more than 281.5 yards against the Browns.

This isn’t meant to be a knock on a guy who’s averaging 306 passing yards per game and completing 73.9 percent of his attempts. This is my model suggesting that facing Cleveland’s secondary, which will likely finish the season among the top three in the league by win share, will limit deep gashes and hold Cousins to a more moderate stat line.

The Ravens‘ backfield has added a possibly major piece ahead of Week 4.

Baltimore announced Saturday that it has activated running back Le’Veon Bell from the practice squad. Bell joined the organization on Sept. 7.

The team also activated practice squad defensive back Kevon Seymour and offensive tackle Andre Smith.

For Bell, Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos could be his first gameday action since appearing for the Chiefs in their Divisional Round matchup versus the Browns. Bell logged two carries for six yards in a Kansas City win; he was also active for Super Bowl LV but did not play. Bell recorded 64 carries for 254 yards and two scores, as well as 13 receptions for 99 yards, in nine regular season appearances for K.C.

Prior to joining the Chiefs, Bell was a member of the Jets for the first five weeks of last season. He spent much of that stretch on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. New York released him in October after failing to trade him, marking the end of a subpar 18-game stint that lasted just under a season and a half.

With Baltimore’s RB room still looking to find its way after losing J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill for the season, Bell could quickly siphon snaps away from Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray and Ty’Son Williams if he proves effective.

Rob Gronkowski’s New England homecoming won’t happen on Sunday night.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports Gronkowski will not travel with the Buccaneers and will be held out versus the Patriots, per a source. The team later announced the news.

The Buccaneers tight end was declared doubtful with a rib injury on the Bucs’ official injury report Friday.

While initial X-rays showed no fractures, follow-up tests revealed two hairline fractures on Gronkowski’s ribs, as source tells Rapoport. The diagnosis could extend Gronkowski’s absence into next week as well, according to Rapoport.

Gronkowski sustained the rib injury early in the third quarter of last week’s road loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The veteran exited before returning late in the quarter, finishing the game with four catches for 55 yards.

This is the first game Gronkowski will miss since coming out of retirement to play in Tampa Bay ahead of the 2020 season, making his rib injury an untimely development ahead of he and Brady’s return to New England. The 32-year-old got off to a hot start in 2021 with 16 receptions for 184 yards and four touchdowns in the first three games.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will still have great options at tight end despite Gronkowski’s absence. Cameron Brate (five receptions, 43 yards) and O.J. Howard (2/32) are now poised to get more opportunities in the Bucs’ high-powered offense which generates plenty of attention with a stellar receiving corps.

The NFL has confirmed a date for the 2022 Super Bowl in Los Angeles – an event that will showcase the new $5 billion SoFi Stadium and bring a needed boost to the local economy.

Super Bowl LVI will be held on Sunday, Feb. 13, 2022 at the Inglewood stadium which serves as home to the Rams and Chargers.

Sofi opened for football in September 2020, but fans have not been allowed to attend games during the pandemic.

Let the countdown begin! #SBLVI #LASuperBowlHC #SoFiStadium #Inglewood pic.twitter.com/OjrkmdTIss

— SoFi Stadium (@SoFiStadium) March 30, 2021

With COVID-19 case rates on the decline and vaccination increasing throughout Southern California and nationwide, it is expected fans will be allowed back for the 2021-22 season.

The NFL championship typically provides an economic boost to businesses throughout the host region, particularly hotels, bars, restaurants and the tourism industry.

“The Super Bowl will be among the first major events to take place in Los Angeles in a post-pandemic world,” saidKathryn Schloessman, Los Angeles Sports & Entertainment Commission President & CEO.

“It will symbolize not just a comeback, but an event that is helping put people back to work, especially those in our region’s restaurant and hospitality industries who were hit especially hard by the pandemic.”

SoFi has 70,000 seats, but has the capacity to fit up to 100,000 people.

The last Super Bowl hosted in Los Angeles was in 1993, when it was held at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. The Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills 52-17.

The very first Super Bowl was also hosted here, in 1967 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 35-10 in Super Bowl I.

Fans of both the Rams and Chargers have high hopes for the upcoming season.

The Rams, who made the Super Bowl in 2019 and currently boast one of the top defensive rosters in the league, acquired quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions in the offseason.

The Chargers offense will be led by second-year QB Justin Herbert, who exceeded expectations in his first season by throwing 31 touchdowns – breaking the league record for a rookie. The Chargers also hired a new coach in January, Brandon Staley, who was previously defensive coordinator for the Rams.

Note: The video in the media player above is from the September 2020 ribbon-cutting ceremony for SoFi Stadium.

The SF 49ers have appeared in seven Super Bowl games, and a few of those squads were purely dominant. But which one was the best overall?

With Super Bowl LV just around the corner, it’s always a good time to look back through SF 49ers history and cherish just how much a championship pedigree the franchise has had over the years.

Yes, the Niners’ last two appearances in the Super Bowl have resulted in heartbreak. And one can only wonder what might have been if San Francisco pulled off some extra victories in a handful of their NFC Championship losses over the years, too. Perhaps fans would be talking about six, seven or even more Super Bowl championships instead of the five, which stood as an NFL record until the Pittsburgh Steelers surpassed that number with a sixth championship in 2009.

Nevertheless, each one of the SF 49ers’ Super Bowl squads was special in its own way. The 1981 squad was special, earning the franchise’s first-ever championship while fans got to see an up-and-coming quarterback, Joe Montana, establish himself as one of the league’s best under another up-and-coming head coach, Bill Walsh. The 1988 version of the Niners was special, too, as it solidified San Francisco as the dynasty of the decade after the franchise secured its third championship.

In all truth, though, the SF 49ers boasted three of the league’s best historical Super Bowl teams, and one might argue the teams from 1984, 1989 and 1994 stood atop the rankings in terms of all-time greats from the Niners’ championship years.

Out of those three, which one was truly the best? Niner Noise takes a look.

RELATED: 3 Super Bowl players the Saints should keep an eye on

No. 3: 1994 SF 49ers
Regular-Season Record: 13-3
Won Super Bowl XXIX vs. Chargers 49-26

Before the NFL’s salary-cap era kicked in, it was clear San Francisco was going all-in on its bid to finally thwart the Dallas Cowboys after losing back-to-back NFC Championship games the previous two years.

The SF 49ers already had star power, boasting quarterback Steve Young and wide receiver Jerry Rice. But even those two weren’t enough to get over the Dallas hump those two seasons prior. So, what did the Niners do?

Well, big moves included purging former Cowboys linebacker Ken Norton Jr. while also adding perennial Pro Bowl cornerback Deion Sanders, whose efforts in 1994 would secure him Defensive Player of the Year accolades.

To this date, no other San Francisco squad surpassed 500 points scored during the regular season aside from the 1994 squad, and the SF 49ers finally pulled off the playoff win over the Cowboys en route to walloping the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX. Young tossed a then-record six touchdowns during the game with Rice being the beneficiary of three of those scores.

Sanders had predicted to Rice before the game the Niners were going to have their way with San Diego, and the cornerback was absolutely correct. The final score made the game seem closer than it actually was.

In terms of lopsided matchups, this victory was arguably the biggest.

RELATED: Super Bowl LV Opening Night Will Be Virtual Only

No. 2: 1989 SF 49ers
Regular-Season Record: 14-2
Won Super Bowl XXIV vs. Broncos 55-10

Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is tough, but San Francisco remains one of only a handful of teams to accomplish this feat.

And it did so in dominant fashion by beating the Denver Broncos in a lopsided 55-10 affair.

True, the SF 49ers had already established themselves as the team of the 1980s. Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and running back Roger Craig were among the best offensive weapons in the entire NFL, but one figured the Broncos’ top-ranked defense from the regular season would be capable of putting up a fight.

Well, not so much.

It didn’t seem like the Super Bowl’s outcome would be such a one-sided affair, at least not during the regular season where the Niners’ point differential was only plus-189 — the lowest out of any of these three Super Bowl squads.

But when considering just how San Francisco steamrolled through the playoffs by a combined score of 126-26, all one needs to do is admit this team was built purely to win a Lombardi Trophy.

While a purely dominant squad, especially in the playoffs, the 1989 SF 49ers squad solidified the reputation of Super Bowls being the expectation level for the franchise after securing its fourth in the decade.

RELATED: Super Bowl LV: The 20 Most Fascinating People involved

No. 1: 1984 SF 49ers
Regular-Season Record: 15-1
Won Super Bowl XIX vs. Dolphins 38-16

While many could tout the 1989 Niners squad as the best in franchise history, and others could make a claim the 1994 team was the best to do it, it would be hard to usurp the 1984 San Francisco team as the best one to ever win a Super Bowl.

For starters, the 15-1 regular-season finish remains a franchise best in terms of win-loss records, and this group was the first team in NFL history to win 15 regular-season games.

It’s a bit weird to think of the SF 49ers winning Super Bowls without Jerry Rice, yes, as he’d enter the league the following year. But by this point, Joe Montana had already established himself as a perennial NFL MVP candidate, and the Niners were dominant on both sides of the ball, securing the No. 2 scoring offense that year with the No. 1 scoring defense, too.

Speaking of that defense, it boasted five Pro Bowl players: defensive backs Ronnie Lott, Dwight Hicks, Carlton Williamson and Eric Wright to go along with linebacker Keena Turner. And San Francisco had a regular-season point differential of plus-248, which remains a franchise record.

So it shouldn’t come as a surprise San Francisco throttled quarterback Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX by a score of 38-16 with Montana tossing three touchdowns with Montana taking home game MVP honors.

True, the 1989 and 1994 squads were awfully good and should be considered towards the top of SF 49ers Super Bowl teams.

Courtesy of Peter Panacy | @peterpanacy

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

https://www.ninersnation.com/

Once again, the New Orleans Saints had Super Bowl expectations and came up with a loss. Again, they will go back to the drawing board and try to improve their offense and defense in hopes of being in the position that the Buccaneers are in right now.

As all 32 teams outside of the Bucs and Chiefs watch the greatest football game on earth this Sunday, the Saints should be carefully watching the players that they have a chance to engage with this free agency and potentially entice to the Big Easy.

These three players are all starters and role players on their perspective teams.

They are also all affordable since we know the Saints are up against the top of the cap once again this year. That being said, there is a realistic option that one or more of these three could be in the black and gold next season.

That is all in hopes of bettering the team and bringing a Lombardi trophy back to New Orleans. As the Super Bowl comes, make sure you keep an eye on these three players who might just find themselves in black and gold jerseys next season.

RELATED: What will be different about Super Bowl LV for Chiefs?

Daniel Sorensen, SS, Kansas City

One of the top needs of the Saints this offseason is a safety. With the potential departure of Marcus Williams and/or Malcolm Jenkins, the Saints will be left with a need at this position. Sorensen could fill that need at a reasonable price.

Sorensen led the Chiefs in tackles this year from the safety position. That proves that he is able to move up in the defense and put pressure on the run and the quarterback other than just roaming the middle of the field looking for an interception.

That is a skill in a safety that you don’t see often. In fact, with his 91 tackles, he would have tied or out-tackled both the Saints’ safeties. He also deflected five passes and picked the quarterback off three times for one touchdown.

Sorensen is currently on a $4 million per year contract which would be lightyears less than the $9-13 million that Marcus Williams will want. If the Saints were smart, they would be in talks with Sorensen as soon as the market opens up.

RELATED: Super Bowl LV: 2 former Denver Broncos to face off in NFL’s title game

Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay

The next player is the only offensive player on this list. Antonio Brown was a beast in his past. When he was with the Pittsburgh Steelers, he was being talked about as the best wide receiver in the NFL with the statistics he was putting up.

After a serious series of events with the Steelers and Raiders, Brown found himself suspended by the NFL and released from the Raiders. After that, he signed with the New England Patriots where he was until allegations led to his release from the team.

After being cleared by the NFL and serving his suspension, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady found Brown a home in Tampa Bay. In only eight games, Brown totaled 45 receptions for 483 yards and four touchdowns this year with the Bucs.

If you multiply that times two for playing a whole season, Brown has 90 receptions for 966 yards and eight touchdowns. That would be good enough to be the second-best receiver on the Saints, and they could definitely use the help at the position.

He is also a very cap-friendly option.

RELATED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs to square off in Super Bowl LV

Damien Wilson, LB, Kansas City

Damien Wilson is a great linebacker, but Kansas City is in a dilemma where Wilson’s contract is up and they have two or three very good linebackers who could take his position. Because of that, there is a good chance the Chiefs let Wilson walk in free agency.

The Saints then have the opportunity to swoop in and get a cap-friendly linebacker who could start at the position alongside Demario Davis. Last season, Wilson totaled 73 tackles and four of which were for a loss. He added one pass defended and one forced fumble.

Considering the Saints really only have one quality linebacker, there really isn’t anyone to compare Wilson to. However, it would allow them not to have to pay Kwon Alexander, who is coming off of an Achilles Tendon rupture, $13 million per year.

Which devices can stream the big game? And how can you tune in? We’ve got all the details right here.

Thanks to @Matthew Beighle

When the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7, each team will start a player who began his career with the Denver Broncos.

For Kansas City, Mike Remmers will start at left tackle. Remmers’ time with the Broncos was short, but they did give him his first NFL contract. After playing college football at Oregon State, Remmers signed with Denver as an undrafted free agent in 2012.

RELATED: Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs to square off in Super Bowl LV

Remmers went to training camp that summer but failed to make the 53-man roster. He went on to spend time with six different teams before joining the Chiefs last March. Remmers has started 88 games in his career.

For Tampa Bay, Shaq Barrett will start at outside linebacker. Barett signed with the Broncos as a college free agent out of Colorado State in 2014. He served primarily as a rotational pass rusher in Denver, playing behind edge defenders including Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Shane Ray and Bradley Chubb.

Barrett opted to leave the Broncos in 2019 in search of an opportunity to start. Barrett knew he wouldn’t start over Miller (a future Hall of Famer) or Chubb (a first-round pick), so he signed with the Bucs two years ago.

Barrett is now set to face off against Remmers in the NFL’s title game.

Courtesy of Jon Heath

The Kansas City Chiefs will get a shot to play in their second consecutive Super Bowl in Super Bowl LV. But this time around things will be a little bit different.

Last year, Super Bowl LIV took place just months prior to the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping across the nation. It’s made the world into a very different place and that includes NFL football. The NFL’s plans for Super Bowl LV and the days leading up to it will also look a lot different.

Here’s a quick look at some of the things that will be different for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV:

Practicing at home

Ahead of Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs were following a very meticulous schedule. Still, they arrived a week ahead of time and spent the week in Miami practicing at the Dolphins’ training facility in Davie, before playing in the Super Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium.

This time around, things are going to be different. The Chiefs will actually spend the entire two weeks prior to Super Bowl LV at home in Kansas City. They’ll practice at their team facilities and everyone will get to sleep in their own bed up until the night prior to the game. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Chiefs actually plan to fly into Tampa the day before the Super Bowl.

Chiefs planning to fly to Tampa the day before Super Bowl LV, and the Bills planning to fly there two days before. Either way, Tom Brady and the Bucs will be waiting.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 24, 2021

In part, this is because the typical Super Bowl week spectacle has either been canceled due to the COVID-19 or shifted to a virtual format. Opening night, for instance, will all take place virtually. So, really, there’s no reason for Kansas City to arrive any earlier than they would for a typical away game during the NFL’s regular season. It’s worth noting, the Chiefs went undefeated on the road this season.

RELATED: Who is Playing Super Bowl LV Halftime? Everything You Need to Know About This Year’s Show

Limited fans in the stands

The NFL announced that approximately 22,000 fans will be allowed at Raymond James Stadium for Super Bowl LV. That includes 7,500 vaccinated health care workers set to be honored for their contributions in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It will also include roughly 17,000 paying fans and the tickets allocated for both the Buccaneers and Chiefs. The capacity at Hard Rock Stadium for Super Bowl LIV was over 65,000 and the fan attendance was nearly 62,000 when the Chiefs took on the 49ers last year.

Ticket prices for Super Bowl LV are markedly higher than LIV because of the limited number of tickets available too. That will certainly make things difficult when it comes to the average fan trying to attend the game. According to Jesse Lawrence of Ticket IQ, these are some of the highest-priced Super Bowl tickets since 2010, when they began tracking ticket price data. Basically, don’t expect a crazy crowd for the Super Bowl. It’ll be slightly bigger than what the Chiefs have had at Arrowhead Stadium this season and that’s only if they sell out.

RELATED: NFL to allow 22,000 fans at Super Bowl LV, including 7,500 vaccinated health care workers

Bucs homefield advantage

The Buccaneers will become the first NFL team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll feel like home for them during the game. They’ll get to stay in their locker rooms as the NFC is this year’s designated home team, that’ll feel like home.

The Bucs have one of the coolest features in any NFL stadium, a pirate ship with cannons. Typically, they fire those cannons when their team scores a touchdown, but that might not be the case in Super Bowl LV. League officials are still weighing options because they want the pirate ship to be part of the game, but they can’t have it only being used for the Buccaneers.

The NFL might have them fire the cannons for both Tampa Bay and Kansas City when a touchdown is scored. If that’s the case, the Bucs better stock up on cannonballs. Just a season ago, the Chiefs ran out of fireworks because they scored so many touchdowns in the divisional round against the Houston Texans.

Chiefs are the away team

This may seem like a no-brainer, but it actually isn’t. Last year the AFC was the designated home team in Super Bowl LIV, allowing the Chiefs the opportunity to choose to wear their home jerseys. They also got the home locker room in Hard Rock Stadium because of that.

This year, the NFC is the designated home team. That means that the Buccaneers get the first choice when it comes to what jersey to wear. We’ll most likely be seeing Tampa Bay wearing the same red primary uniform that they wore against the Chiefs back in Week 12, while Kansas City would wear their typical white-on-red away jersey. That is, of course, unless the Bucs decide they’d rather wear their white away uniform instead.

Safely secure your own Super Bowl LV ticket package

The Chiefs are headed to Tampa to face the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV! Be one of the lucky 22,000 fans in attendance at the big game by safely and securely purchasing your own ticket package via On Location.

Courtesy of Charles Goldman

This will be a Super Bowl like no other. For the first time in my 11-year career covering the NFL, the week will not begin with Opening Night, né Media Night, where reporters jostle shoulder-to-shoulder with people dressed in superhero costumes to ask Chiefs coaches about various play-calling minutiae while EDM music blares over the loudspeaker and fans scream nonstop at Michael Irvin. It’s more fun than it sounds, and I’ll miss it dearly. Everything about the event and its fabricated heft will be missing, even as the NFL breaks a sweat trying to shove its very existence into every quantifiable space in our (now virtual) lives anyway, because that’s what good businesses do.

It will be a fascinating Super Bowl for many reasons, though. Fascinating because Tom Brady is here without Bill Belichick. Fascinating that Andy Reid is back, no longer the coach who needs a championship for you to see his true genius. Fascinating that it will take place at all, marking the end of a season when the largest and most complicated sports property in the nation managed to ship hundreds of people across the country with regularity and somehow avoided canceling games (or a major health catastrophe).

In that spirit, here are the 20 most fascinating people in and around Tampa this week.

The Buccaneers’ coaching staff

The Buccaneers’ staff includes two women, assistant defensive line coach Lori Locust and assistant strength and conditioning coach Maral Javadifar. All of their top coordinators, Byron Leftwich (offense), Todd Bowles (defense), Keith Armstrong (special teams) and Harold Goodwin (assistant head coach), are Black. Their arrival here feels especially prescient given how the latest round of coach hirings and firings have slipped away without any tangible sign of progress on the horizon. Black head coaches are woefully underrepresented and are often forced into nonpipeline roles as a means of survival in the business. Yet, this team that would not be here without its group of talented coaches. The focus will certainly be on Tom Brady, but without Bowles, Leftwich, Armstrong and the rest, there is no way the Buccaneers would be here hosting a Super Bowl.

The Chiefs’ coaching staff

To build off the last point, Reid’s top offensive disciple, Eric Bieniemy, is also Black. He gracefully answered questions for hours last year about why he was not a head coach, as if the problem was somehow his and not due to some of the most obviously entrenched biases in U.S. professional sports. One day, Bieniemy will get his chance to pilot an NFL franchise, but for now, he will continue to design some of the most dazzling and innovative offensive packages in the sport. Having Bieniemy’s work on the game’s grandest stage once again will hopefully serve as a lesson to owners out there struggling with their milquetoast offenses that they may want to try hiring outside their box once in a while.

Jason Pierre-Paul

Since his departure from New York, which was an effort to save the Giants some desperate cap space, Pierre-Paul has been quietly dominant, logging 12.5, 8.5 and 9.5 sacks in his three years with Tampa Bay. The 2010 first-round pick, who burst into football consciousness as part of the Giants’ legendary NASCAR pass-rush package, Pierre-Paul has refined his game and plays nicely off Todd Bowles’s assortment of interior and edge pass rushers. Five years after Pierre-Paul nearly lost his hand in a fireworks incident, he is back at the Super Bowl.

Ali Marpet

Arguably the Buccaneers’ most consistent offensive lineman, Marpet’s stellar play may have led us to forget where he came from. The second-round pick hails from Hobart College and is the son of a rock ’n’ roll mom and video producer dad. He and Chiefs tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who will likely not play in the Super Bowl, are among a small number of Jewish NFL players. So much of Brady’s success over the years has been thanks to stellar interior line play, which prevents the quickest blitz schemes from traversing the shortest distance to the quarterback. Marpet is the next man up in a proud line of Brady bodyguards.

Le’Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette

Two running backs once at the height of the sport, Bell and Fournette will be relegated to uncertain role player status in this game. The setup has worked out slightly better for Fournette, the 2017 No. 4 pick who was waved by the Jaguars before the season. In recent weeks, his carry total has been 19, 17 and 12, respectively, signaling the dwindling likelihood that he may continue to act as the offense’s power component. Bell, meanwhile, logged a pair of carries against the Browns and missed last week’s game against the Packers. His season high for touches was 15, in a game against the Saints back in December.

Alberto Riveron

The league’s head of officiating didn’t seem to be in the crosshairs as much this season, but that changed quickly in the playoffs. A bungled call in the divisional round game between the Bills and Colts that handed Philip Rivers an extended comeback attempt perked up antennae. A questionable pass interference call in the Packers-Buccaneers game also roiled fans and brought into question the consistency of the foul-calling process. Riveron and his crew, in a moment this bright, will not be able to hide behind the fact that people are simply grateful for the distraction.

Sarah Thomas

Thomas, a 47-year-old referee from Pascagoula, Miss., will make history as the first woman official in Super Bowl history. She first began traversing the ranks in 1996 and broke the NFL’s officiating gender barrier in 2015. Now, she will be a key component of official Carl Cheffers’s crew.

The Weeknd

Perhaps a moment of unity that this country desperately needs: We will all watch with bated breath to find out whether he has a song that isn’t “Blinding Lights” during the halftime show.

Patrick Mahomes

You knew we’d get to the quarterbacks at some point. A lot will be written about torch-passing this week, which is fine. It is the simple narrative that is most easily digestible for the casual viewing public. However, I would caution all of us about projecting anything too deeply into the future. Andrew Luck retired early. A swath of promising talent in recent years has decided that the game’s rigors are not worth sacrificing their lives for. Mahomes had a front-row seat to the highs and lows of an athlete’s lifestyle, watching his dad, an MLB pitcher. Will he want to be on that ride forever? Instead, we should borrow a lesson we all hopefully learned during this pandemic and apply it to a great player like Mahomes in his prime. Enjoy it now. It’s happening now. What will happen in the future? Who knows. If Mahomes wants to be Tom Brady, that is great and lucky us. If he wants to be something else in five years, all the better.

Tom Brady

The 43-year-old quarterback has transcended the traditional idea of sports greatness and has raised the bar for any generational talent in the future who hopes to have their name synonymous with athletic success. Brady has played in roughly half of the Super Bowls that have occurred since some of his teammates were born. His 10 trips will likely be untouched by any quarterback in NFL history. His success outside of the Patriots’ dynasty, without bringing with him any of the coaching infrastructure, will boldly underline the tail end of his narrative arc.

Bill Belichick

Speaking of which, the simpletons will associate Brady’s presence here with the idea that he was more responsible for the success of the Patriots’ dynasty. This was a difficult year for Belichick from a personnel standpoint, but it’s hard to imagine New England will not rebound in the future. Still, for the moment, it will be hard for the larger football audience, which checks in periodically through the lens of their fantasy football team or DraftKings account, to keep Belichick’s contributions in their proper perspective when two weeks of Brady shine start to create some overgrowth.

Ndamukong Suh

Before the Patriots and Rams met in Super Bowl LIII, I talked to the then Rams DT about his pregame mental processes. He smiled and discussed his affinity for Animal Planet as a tome of information on the psychological battlefield. When I talked specifically about “poking the bear” referring to Brady, Suh said he wouldn’t consider Brady a bear at all. Now, Suh is playing with Brady and brings his penchant for in-game agitation to a Chiefs offensive line that is reeling from several serious injuries. It is often crafty veterans like Suh who have the biggest, though underdiscussed, impacts on critical moments in big games. Might that be the case this year?

Tom Moore

The 82-year-old Buccaneers consultant is still rolling. His Super Bowl appearance in 2021 will come a full 60 years after he began his coaching career at Iowa as a graduate assistant. Moore won a pair of Super Bowls as a position coach with Chuck Noll’s Steelers and another as Peyton Manning’s offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. The soft-spoken Midwesterner once told a reporter that he had no interest in retiring, as it meant he would just “hang around old people.”

Chris Boniol

The Buccaneers’ kicking coach is one of a small handful of former kickers employed by teams to specifically coach kickers. It’s a relatively untapped field, but an interesting one. Very few staffs have someone who is capable of addressing the psychology of kicking. Maybe it seems like an unnecessary cost, but when the game is on the line and you’re down by two, would you pay a few thousand dollars to have someone there to comfort your all-of-a-sudden most important player?

Antonio Brown

Fascinating might not be the word here, but the mercurial star receiver, who is still facing allegations of sexual assault and rape in a pending trial set for early December 2021, ended up being a subtly important on-field piece of Tampa Bay’s late-season run. During a typical Super Bowl with a crush of media, Brown would probably be confronted about his recent past, as would Tampa Bay’s decision makers. This year, he may very well be able to fly under the radar despite the fact that he’s still been causing trouble.

Steve Spagnuolo

The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator is an interesting historical footnote here. As the defensive coordinator of the 2007 Giants, he managed to spearhead the effort to shut down one of the greatest teams in NFL history—the undefeated Patriots helmed by you-know-who. He is the only coordinator to have inherited the league’s worst defense at multiple stops and coached them to a Super Bowl. While his time as a prospective head coach may be over (Spagnuolo was the Rams’ head coach for three seasons and held the interim gig in New York), his presence behind the scenes as a man who knows Brady well will be interesting to keep an eye on.

Tony Dungy

While Jon Gruden won the Bucs’ franchise its only Super Bowl to date, Dungy built the roster and assembled the fearsome Tampa-2 defensive scheme that provided the team with its lasting identity. Dungy went on to become the first Black head coach in NFL history to win the Super Bowl, with the Colts in 2006. Now, as an outspoken advocate for minority hiring, Dungy’s presence looms large in Tampa. His former team is loaded with talented Black coaches, only one of whom got a legitimate interview for a head coach opening following the season (Bowles). His legacy in Tampa should serve as a reminder about the spirit of the Rooney Rule.

Chiefs’ backup offensive linemen

The performances of Mike Remmers (in for Eric Fisher) and Andrew Wylie (likely in for Schwartz) will be factors against a Buccaneers defense that can create a ton of pressure. Reid has praised his general manager’s ability to layer depth across this offensive line and, indeed, having someone like Remmers or Stefen Wisniewski around to fill in has been a boon for Patrick Mahomes throughout the stretch run. But we’ve seen offensive line play targeted and exposed so many times in the Super Bowl, especially when good coordinators have an extra week to prepare and isolate matchups. Can this pair hang on against Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett?

Paying fans

A quick stroll through StubHub before publication showed seats in the 300 section of Raymond James Stadium going for roughly $6,800 per ticket. These prices have a tendency to calm down once the market resets before the game and inventory is left, but it will create a strange spectacle. The stadium will be populated by vaccinated health care workers sitting alongside the deep-pocketed traveling elite, who are, in theory, subverting the very idea of safety in solitude that will aid health care workers moving forward through the (hopeful) tail end of this pandemic.

Us

What does the Super Bowl mean to you this year? The NFL has been in an ethical tug-of-war throughout one of the worst stretches in modern U.S. history. Personally, it was difficult to watch players and coaches openly flout mask policies that could contribute to the societal disinformation gap and hard not to feel anxious for people in a huddle breathing all over one another during a pandemic. But at the same time, Sundays, Mondays and Thursdays were often a release amid months of lockdown. Catharsis. I complained about the draft taking place and then devoured it. I rattled my fist at the Ravens’ taking the field after Dez Bryant’s last-minute positive COVID-19 test and then watched the entire game. Never did I feel myself more twisted around this idea of good and bad sort of devouring itself whole. It was a complicated relationship that preyed on our lack of things to do. Am I looking forward to watch Super Bowl 2021 with my kids? You bet. If you had asked me to wager money in September on whether we’d actually have a Super Bowl, would I have bet in the affirmative? No way.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game on Sunday, 31 to 26, to advance to Super Bowl 55. Later Sunday night, the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs took home the AFC Championship with a 38 to 24 win over the Buffalo Bills, securing a spot in a second straight Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 55 is scheduled to be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, making this the first time in Super Bowl history that one of the competing teams will be playing in their home stadium.

The last time a team competing for the NFL championship played in their home stadium was in 1966, when the Packers defeated the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field, one season before the start of the Super Bowl era.

Twice in Super Bowl history, California teams have played in the same city as their home field, but in a different venue. The Los Angeles Rams, who at the time called the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum home, played at the Rose Bowl in Super Bowl 14. The San Francisco 49ers played at Stanford Stadium in Super Bowl 19, but their home games were played at Candlestick Park.

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady, who played with the New England Patriots for 20 seasons, led Tampa Bay to its first Super Bowl appearance since they won it in 2003. Until this season, that was Tampa Bay’s only Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Brady will be appearing in his 10th Super Bowl, having already won six, both high marks for any player in NFL history.

The Buccaneers got off to a hot start on Sunday, taking a 21-10 lead into halftime. The offense sputtered in the second half, however, thanks in part to 3 interceptions thrown by Brady. But with a little over 2 minutes remaining in the game and facing a 4th down from their opponent’s 8 yard line, the Packers elected to kick a field goal rather than go for the touchdown, which would have put them a two point conversion away from a tie. They never got the ball back, as the Bucs offense got two more first downs on the ensuing possession.

“It’s been a great journey thus far,” Brady said after Sunday’s game. “We put the work in. Guys just embraced everything, really, when [head coach Bruce Arians] got here last year. There was a lot of great things that were happening, a lot of great young players. I just made a decision. I’ve loved coming to work every day with this group of guys.”

Brady will face off against Patrick Mahomes, who earned the title of Super Bowl MVP after leading the Chiefs to a 31-20 win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54. The upcoming matchup will be the largest age gap between opposing quarterbacks in Super Bowl history, as Mahomes is 18 years, 1 month and 4 days younger than Brady.

The Chiefs faced an early 9-0 deficit in the AFC Championship after a muffed punt gave Buffalo the ball at the 3 yard line. The Bills, already up 3, scored a touchdown on the first play of the drive, but missed the extra point. After that, the Chiefs’ offense came to life, scoring 21 points in the second quarter while their defense held the Bills to just three points. The Bills wouldn’t score another touchdown until the 4:08 mark of the fourth quarter.

After an unsuccessful 2-point conversion, Buffalo found themselves down by 17. They managed to recover an onside kick, but the following possession only amounted to another field goal, cutting the lead to 14 with a little more than three minutes remaining in the game. The Chiefs then put together an eight-play drive, including three kneel downs, to run out the clock and secure the victory.

Super Bowl 55 is scheduled to be played on Sunday, February 7 and will air on CBS.

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